tl;dr
You know I like macro events. Well, First Republic could be just that. Here is what is on my mind today.1. First Republic's stock has dropped over 49% yesterday and you know what could be coming. I hope not, but I can easily see the government stepping into attempt a smoother exit by the bank. The q...
You know I like macro events. Well, First Republic could be just that. Here is what is on my mind today.
1. First Republic's stock has dropped over 49% yesterday and you know what could be coming. I hope not, but I can easily see the government stepping into attempt a smoother exit by the bank. The question I have is why has it come to this? Wasn't it just a little while ago that other banks dropped money into them? On March 13th I told you how David Sacks said there were going to be next. On the March 15th I shared a list of regional banks that could be on the outs. Keep a close eye.
2. Citing uncertainty and, basically, a hostile environment, Binance.US has pulled out of the Voyager deal. This should be of no surprise. The various departments US government, including the SEC, CFTC and DOJ, have made it a little more than hard to do business here if you are a crypto company. The next question I have is how will this affect the sale of Celsius assets that Gemini and Coinbase are bidding for.
3. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, is not playing games and is going after the SEC and, specifically, Gary Gensler. Brian highlighted a statement Gary made in 2018 where he stated that the United States follows the Howey Test. At the time Gensler was a Professor at MIT and was involved in a course called "Blockchain and Money". What's more is during that course Gary spoke about the importance of blockchain and cryptocurrency. My question is what happened from then to now that made him make such a hard reversal of opinion. More importantly, How do I invest in this climate.
4. The New York Fed may be changing the rules on their reverse repurchase program and that could lock USDC out of the program. By curbing their counterparty criteria USDC is basically ineligible and locks them out of the prized facility. I first spoke about this all the way back on December 22nd of last year. Now, I am waiting to see if there is any way around it for USDC. On another note, it is also being hinted that Circle could be weighing their options about leaving the US over regulatory uncertainty. This should be of no surprise considering Coinbase is considering same.
5. While Microsoft's stock takes off because of their AI and cloud plays, Google is trying to court Web3 startups with their dedicated infrastructure. Google is trying to show people they can build out their projects faster using their infrastructure over others. As a technologist, I think what is coming is a mind meld of services across the Internet. Meaning new project are going to leverage various services from various parts of the Internet. This means we could begin to see a different way of leveraging different infrastructures for different reasons and advantages over using a single infrastructure. I may want to use Azure for my front end and AI work, but leverage Google for some of my Web3 functionality. Internet-based application architecture is going to take off, but, mist likely, not in the way people think.
6. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest is not backing off the idea of a Bitcoin ETF and neither is 21Shares. The two came together in filing a request with the SEC to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF. This is even after being turned down twice previously. The first reject was in June of 2021 and the second came in May of last year. With some many things going on, at some point, the SEC has got to give on something. I think the SEC is currently playing the from their heels.