NatalieLopez

 29 Nov 23

tl;dr

Stock index futures are pointing higher as the 10-year Treasury yield fell further to 4.30%, after touching 4.25% overnight. Investor expectations of a more dovish path for rates over the year ahead have increased following a classic bull steepening move in markets. Fed speak, particularly from voti...

Stock index futures are pointing higher as the 10-year Treasury yield fell further to 4.30%, after touching 4.25% overnight. Investor expectations of a more dovish path for rates over the year ahead have increased following a classic bull steepening move in markets. Fed speak, particularly from voting hawk Chris Waller, has sparked more Treasury buying and led to noticeable adjustment in rate cut probabilities. Despite softer auction metrics and an upcoming second revision of Q3 GDP, the potential for a change in the rate cycle remains a focus point for the market.

The 2-year Treasury yield also fell to 4.70%. Today, the second revision of Q3 GDP is expected to remain steady at an annual growth rate of 4.9%. Revisions to US third-quarter GDP are on track to be downplayed by markets, with retail and wholesale inventory data also on the docket for today. Despite the incomplete nature of the data, the potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy is being bolstered by recent market movements.

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