tl;dr
The National Retail Federation forecast on Wednesday that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% from a year ago to land in a range of $5.23T and $5.28T. The forecast implies a deceleration from the 3.6% annual retail sales growth seen in 2023, but the pace is roughly in line with ...
The National Retail Federation forecast on Wednesday that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% from a year ago to land in a range of $5.23T and $5.28T. The forecast implies a deceleration from the 3.6% annual retail sales growth seen in 2023, but the pace is roughly in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual growth rate.
As usual, non-store and online sales are expected to outpace brick-and-mortar retail sales. The category that includes online sellers such as Amazon (AMZN), Etsy (ETSY), Wayfair (W), and Chewy (CHWY) is forecast to grow between 7% and 9% in 2024 from a year ago to a range of $1.47T to $1.50T.
"The economy is primarily supported by consumers who have shown much greater resilience than expected, and it’s hard to be bearish on the consumer," highlighted NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, "The question for 2024 ultimately is, will consumer spending maintain its resilience?"
Looking ahead, NRF expects a tight labor market, with its robust job growth and wage gains fueling consumer spending, will cool in 2024. With the pace of the economy slowing in 2024, NRF expects about 100K fewer jobs on average per month compared with 2023 and the unemployment rate to average around 4% for the full year. On the positive side, consumer balance sheets and debt servicing levels were noted to remain in good condition.
Some of the consumer discretionary stocks that have dramatically outperfomed in 2024 include RealReal (REAL) 70%, Maplebear (CART) 61%, CAVA Group (CAVA) 55%, Shake Shack (SHAK) 44%, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 35%, and Gap (GPS) 25%.
The consumer discretionary stocks with the highest Seeking Alpha Quant scores include Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Gap (GPS), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Brinker International (EAT), and Dillard's (DDS).
More about Amazon.com Inc
Amazon.com Inc is a prominent player in the retail-catalog and mail-order houses industry, with a market cap of $1.83 trillion. The stock has shown a strong performance, with a current price of $3,516.78, and a 52-week range of $2,891.49 - $3,773.08. The company's stock has a beta of 1.39, indicating higher volatility compared to the overall market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.78, suggesting a neutral sentiment. However, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. The company's strong financial position and market dominance make it a valuable investment option, but potential risks include regulatory scrutiny and competition from other tech giants.
More about Etsy Inc
Etsy Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies. The company has a market capitalization of $7.94 billion and a current stock price of $29.91. The stock has a beta of 2.24, indicating higher volatility compared to the overall market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 22.43, suggesting the stock is oversold. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $81.42 and a 200-day moving average of $0.18. Market sentiment is currently mixed, with a slight bullish trend indicated by the positive RSI value, but the stock is trading well below its moving averages, indicating potential downside risk. It's important to note that past market behavior is not always a reliable indicator of future performance, and there are potential uncertainties in the market that could impact the stock's future performance.
More about Wayfair Inc
Wayfair Inc. is a leading e-commerce company in the United States and internationally, specializing in retail-catalog and mail-order houses. With a market cap of $12.03 billion, the stock has shown a negative performance of -6.47% and a closing price of $105.29. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66.53, indicating a potentially bearish trend. It's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results, and there are potential risks associated with investing in this stock.
More about Chewy Inc
Chewy Inc, a leading e-commerce retailer in the US, has seen a steady increase in revenue, with a reported annual revenue of $11.01 billion. Despite a slight decrease in stock price by 0.2%, the company's stock performance has been relatively stable, with a current stock price of $561.33. Market sentiment towards Chewy Inc remains positive, with a bullish trend indicated by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25.74. However, it's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results, and potential risks or uncertainties should be considered.
More about TheRealReal Inc
TheRealReal Inc operates in the trade & services sector, specifically in the retail-miscellaneous retail industry. The company reported a revenue of $353.335 million, with a net income of -$1.65 million, and an operating cash flow of $5.4 million. Despite these metrics, the company's stock performance has been relatively stable, with a decrease of 0.307% in recent trading sessions. Market sentiment towards TheRealReal Inc is currently neutral, with a market cap of $549.304 million and a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.92. However, it's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results, and uncertainties in the market may impact the company's future performance.
More about Maplebear Inc. Common Stock
Maplebear Inc. Common Stock,Carolina Trust BancShares, Inc. is the banking holding company for Carolina Trust Bank, a state-licensed bank that provides commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses. The company is headquartered in Lincolnton, North Carolina. The stock has experienced a 5.86% decrease in value, currently trading at 38.34. Market sentiment is slightly negative with a decrease of 0.431. The company's market capitalization stands at 2.996 billion. Overall, the stock is currently at 34.5 with a potential for a bullish trend, though uncertainty remains high with a RSI of 9.28 and a potential for a breakout at 0.144.
More about CAVA Group Inc.
CAVA Group Inc. is a company in the retail-eating places industry with a market cap of $7.42 billion. The stock is currently trading at $12.04, with a 0.0182% change. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62.67, indicating a neutral sentiment. The stock has shown support at the $12 level and resistance at the $13 level. The company's performance has been relatively stable, with no significant breakout or head and shoulders pattern observed. However, there is a bullish trend in the short term, and the stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. There is potential for further upside, but there are uncertainties in the market that could impact the stock's performance. It's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results, and investors should consider the potential risks associated with their investment decisions.
More about Shake Shack Inc
Shake Shack Inc. has a market capitalization of $4.44 billion and a stock price of $218.73. The company has shown a 0.48% change in stock price over the last trading period, with a 27.59% increase in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a potential overbought condition. The stock has a 0.0186 earnings per share (EPS) and a trading volume of 1,087,533,000. The current stock price is above the 50-day moving average of $103.84, suggesting a bullish trend. However, caution is advised as the stock is currently trading at resistance levels, and the RSI indicator may signal a potential reversal. Investors should closely monitor the stock's performance and potential breakout or breakdown from these levels to make informed decisions.
More about Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Deckers Outdoor Corporation is a company that designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle and high-performance activities. The stock is currently trading at $32.89 with a 52-week low of $27.63 and a high of $158.19. The company has a market capitalization of $4.12 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 922.85. The stock has a beta of 0.442, indicating that it is less volatile than the overall market. Deckers Outdoor Corporation operates in the manufacturing industry, specifically in the rubber & plastics footwear sector. The market sentiment for the company is currently neutral, with no clear bullish or bearish trend. However, investors should be cautious as the stock has shown significant volatility in the past year and past market behavior may not be a reliable indicator of future performance.
More about Gap Inc
Gap Inc. is a retail company in the family clothing stores industry with a market capitalization of $14.89 billion. The stock is currently trading at $18.96 with a 0.6% increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.24, indicating a neutral sentiment. The company's moving average shows a slight bullish trend, but with a resistance level at $20.8. The stock has a potential breakout if it can surpass this level. However, given the current market sentiment and potential resistance, there are uncertainties in the stock's performance in the near future. Past market behavior may not be a reliable indicator of future performance, so caution is advised in making investment decisions.
More about Abercrombie & Fitch Company
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) is a specialty retailer in the family clothing stores sector with a market cap of $6.6 billion. The stock is currently trading at $21.07 with a 52-week range of $6.21 to $85.19. The stock has a beta of 0.0767, indicating low volatility compared to the overall market. The company's average trading volume is 4,280,677 shares, and it has a P/E ratio of 139, suggesting high valuation. ANF's current RSI is 2.994, indicating oversold conditions, and the stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend. However, it's important to note that past market behavior is not always a reliable indicator of future performance, and there are potential risks and uncertainties associated with this analysis.
More about Urban Outfitters Inc
Urban Outfitters Inc. is a company engaged in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The stock is currently trading at $14.27 with a market capitalization of $5.15 billion. The stock has shown a 3.05% increase over the past month and a 55.59% increase over the past year. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44.63, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market. The stock is currently trading at 0.0558 times its book value, suggesting potential undervaluation. However, the stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, which may indicate a bearish trend. Investors should consider the potential risks associated with this analysis, as past market behavior is not always a reliable indicator of future performance.
More about Brinker International Inc
Brinker International Inc. is a company that owns, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. With a market capitalization of $4.24 billion and a stock price of $46.29, the company operates in the retail-eating places industry. The stock has shown a 3.42% dividend yield and has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.67. The market sentiment for Brinker International Inc. appears to be neutral, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 95.83, suggesting potential overbought conditions. It is important to note that past market behavior is not always a reliable indicator of future performance and that there are potential risks and uncertainties associated with this analysis.
More about Dillards Inc
Dillards Inc, a retail-department store company, has a market capitalization of $7.44 billion and a stock price of $9.75. The stock has a 52-week high of $44.74 and a 52-week low of $0.90, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 416.63. The company has experienced a -8.6% change in stock price over the past year and a -0.2% change in the last quarter. Despite the negative stock performance, the company's market sentiment remains neutral, with potential uncertainty due to the high price-to-earnings ratio and the recent negative stock performance.
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