tl;dr
The US national debt is nearing $35 trillion, prompting a caution to investors from JPMorgan Chase analysts. According to Treasury data, the public debt stands at $34.99 trillion as of July 25th, up from $32.59 trillion a year ago. JPMorgan warns of underlying risks due to escalating deficits and hi...
The US national debt is nearing $35 trillion, prompting a caution to investors from JPMorgan Chase analysts. According to Treasury data, the public debt stands at $34.99 trillion as of July 25th, up from $32.59 trillion a year ago.
JPMorgan warns of underlying risks due to escalating deficits and high sovereign debt levels, advising investors to diversify into non-US dollar assets and "real assets" like infrastructure, gold, and commodities. They anticipate limited improvement in America's fiscal outlook and suggest hedging against inflation and dollar depreciation.
JPMorgan emphasizes the potential impact of the growing debt and deficits on the US government's ability to respond to future economic downturns, recommending a departure from the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of a more diverse approach.
The US national debt is closing in on $35 trillion, triggering a warning to investors from analysts at JPMorgan Chase. According to new data from the Treasury, the total outstanding public debt amounts to $34.99 trillion – or $34,997,540,505,103 to be exact – as of July 25th. That’s up from $32.59 trillion just one year ago.
In a new memo to investors from its private banking arm, JPMorgan analysts say there are underlying risks associated with America’s ballooning deficits and high sovereign debt levels. And according to the bank, investors shouldn’t expect any significant improvement in America’s fiscal outlook any time soon.
“The bottom line for investors is that we don’t expect meaningful improvement in the trajectory for U.S. debt or deficits in the medium term. However, multi-asset portfolios should still be able to deliver for investors. Monetary policymakers have maintained credibility, investor demand for U.S. Treasury assets is still strong, and the tax base is robust.
That said, the risks are meaningful enough to consider adding non-U.S. dollar–denominated assets and “real assets” such as infrastructure, gold and commodities to traditional multi-asset portfolios. A focus on tax efficiency for U.S. taxpayers could also be prudent.”
JPM says the growing debt and deficits will limit the “fiscal flexibility” of the US, restricting the government’s ability to respond to future economic downturns. With the status quo likely to continue, JPMorgan warns investors still relying on the traditional 60/40 portfolio should seriously reconsider, recommending an approach that considers hedging against inflation and dollar depreciation.
“For investors, the message is clear: It is probably prudent to move beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Including non-U.S. dollar assets and real assets such as infrastructure, gold and commodities can provide a hedge against potential dollar depreciation and inflation. Tax efficiency is also key.”
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