tl;dr
JPMorgan Chase is updating its economic outlook, raising the probability of a US and global recession by the end of the year from 25% to 35%. The bank points to signs of a slowdown in the US economy, such as a rising unemployment rate and a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. However, JPMorgan is...
JPMorgan Chase has revised its economic outlook, increasing the probability of a US and global recession by the end of 2019 from 25% to 35%. This adjustment is attributed to signs of a slowdown in the US economy, including a rising unemployment rate and a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
Despite this, JPMorgan is maintaining its forecast of a 45% chance of a recession by the end of 2025. Additionally, the bank's analysts now see a 30% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher-for-longer, down from 50% two months ago. They anticipate the Fed to lower rates by at least 100 basis points through year-end due to a positive shift in the risk profile on US inflation.
Amid increasing market turbulence and growing fears of an impending recession, JPMorgan Chase's global research division notes that the US economy is displaying signs of a slowdown, emphasizing the rising unemployment rate and a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. Consequently, the bank has raised the probability of a US and global recession by the end of the year from 25% to 35%.
JPMorgan's growth forecast is being challenged, with indications of a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding. While there are concerns about a loss of momentum in global manufacturing and in the Euro area, these are being counteracted by solid gains in overall activity, primarily led by the service sector.
Notably, JPMorgan is leaving its forecast of a recession by the end of 2025 unchanged at 45%. Furthermore, the bank's analysts have adjusted their outlook on the Federal Reserve, now foreseeing a 30% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates at higher-for-longer levels, down from 50% two months ago.
This assessment of recession risk contrasts with a significant reassessment of the interest rate outlook. JPMorgan attributes this to correlated shifts in growth and inflation risk, noting a material positive shift in the risk profile on US inflation, which they expect will prompt the Fed to lower rates by at least 100 basis points through year-end.
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Couchbase Inc
Industry: Technology, Services-Prepackaged Software
Revenue: $901,050,000
Profit Margin: -1.64%
Operating Margin: 3.953%
Return on Assets: -0.417
Market Cap: $190,368,000
P/E Ratio: 26.5
Dividend Yield: 0
Beta: 0.252