tl;dr
Economist Alex Krüger predicts that Bitcoin is in a "supercycle" with a potential local top a few months away. He attributes this to significant changes in Bitcoin's fundamentals, including expected shifts in the regulatory landscape under the upcoming pro-crypto Trump administration. Krüger anticip...
Economist Alex Krüger predicts that Bitcoin is in a "supercycle" with a potential local top a few months away. He attributes this to significant changes in Bitcoin's fundamentals, including expected shifts in the regulatory landscape under the upcoming pro-crypto Trump administration.
Krüger anticipates Bitcoin surpassing its recent all-time high and suggests a major local top around March, cautioning against prematurely expecting a bear market. He dismisses the traditional four-year cycle and expects Bitcoin's bull run to continue as long as equities do.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,555, down 3.7% in the last 24 hours.
Economist Alex Krüger says Bitcoin (BTC ) is likely in the midst of a supercycle with a local top still several months away. The trader tells his 192,500 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are now different than prior cycles due to expected changes in the regulatory landscape.
He suggests the election of pro-crypto Donald Trump is going to cause the US’s regulatory agencies to embrace Bitcoin. Trump, who assumes office as US president next month, is picking pro-crypto figures to serve in his cabinet.
“Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to prior cycles. Bitcoin is highly likely in a supercycle. The crypto industry has just experienced its most dramatic change in history, a fundamentally driven 180-degree turn. The industry went in weeks from a barely legal pariah detested by the state, to one of the top industries embraced by the state.”
“The change is so extreme it’s hard to find comparables in modern times. Maybe gold in the 1970s is one. The 1970s was a transformative decade for gold. Nixon’s ending of the Gold Standard in 1971, dismantling Bretton Woods, sent gold surging from $35 per ounce to $850 in 1981.”
Lastly, he says that Bitcoin will likely surpass its most recent all-time high price of about $103,700, which it hit on December 5th.
“Expecting a major local top around March does make sense, as I’ve covered in prior posts. This would be heavily dependent on the slope of ascent, funding rates, and the broader economy. But one should not equate a major local top with the beginning of the bear market. Maybe we do get such bear market. Anything is possible. But the conditions for it are not yet there. It’s also too soon to be expecting a top. Bitcoin bull-runs always last for many months. It’s only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken.”
Krüger previously said that the crypto bull run could take a break in March due to the fact that tax day in the US is on April 15th. He also disputed the notion that there will be “a top” to the ongoing Bitcoin bull market.
“There is no top. That’s the whole point of the supercycle. 40% pullbacks instead. This goes on for as long as equities go on. The four-year cycle is thus dead.”
Bitcoin is trading for $96,555 at time of writing, down 3.7% in the last 24 hours.