tl;dr
The "Bitfinex Alpha" report suggests that Bitcoin could reach a peak of $290,000 in early 2026 if it follows the price action seen during the 2017 bull run. The projection is based on historical patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators. The report also discus...
Bitfinex projects Bitcoin peaking at $290k in early 2026 if historical patterns repeat
Bitcoin (BTC) could hit a peak of $290,000 in early 2026 if it repeats the price action seen during the 2017 bull run, according to the latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report. The projection is based on historical price patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.
Following its bear market low in November 2022, Bitcoin rebounded strongly with a 155.5% gain in 2023. The momentum carried into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year and posting a 143% year-to-date gain.
The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, bolstered by anticipation of Bitcoin’s 2024 halving event, which historically precedes a bullish year. Additionally, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which have provided consistent demand and limited the scale and duration of market corrections.
CYCLE PATTERNS
In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin’s largest correction was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle saw a 27.1% drawdown. In the current cycle, corrections have been more contained due to growing institutional interest, further enhancing market stability.
A key tool for predicting Bitcoin’s price peaks, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, has historically marked cycle highs with remarkable accuracy. The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
The report highlighted that this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025, if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats or as late as Jan. 28, 2026, in a scenario mirroring the 2017 extended cycle.
PRICE PROJECTIONS
Based on historical performance, Bitcoin has peaked significantly above its moving averages during bull runs. In 2017, it traded three times the value of its moving averages at its peak. However, returns have diminished as BTC matures, suggesting more conservative price projections.
According to Bitfinex, if Bitcoin follows the 2021 trajectory, it could increase 40% above its moving averages and reach a price of around $339,000. However, considering the subdued returns, Bitcoin may rise 15% to 20% above its moving averages, placing its peak in the $160,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2025. Meanwhile, in the less likely event that the 2017 cycle repeats, Bitcoin could peak at approximately $290,000 by early 2026.
While historical indicators suggest the most likely scenario is a peak between $160,000 and $290,000, the path to these heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions, the report said.