tl;dr
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart rank altcoin ETF approval odds for 2025. Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% chance, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70%. XRP trails with a 65% probability. SEC's recent acknowledgment of Litecoin ETF forms boosts its approval o...
Bloomberg Analysts' Rankings: Litecoin Leads Altcoin ETF Approval Race Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have ranked altcoin ETF approval odds for 2025. According to their estimates, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% chance of approval, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70%. XRP trails with a 65% probability.
The recent acknowledgment of Litecoin ETF forms by the SEC has boosted its approval odds, while Solana (SOL) and XRP face challenges due to being labeled as securities. The analysts anticipate potential changes to ETF approval odds, especially for XRP and SOL, based on SEC reviews and alternative ETF structures.
2025 is expected to bring a wave of crypto ETFs amid a more favorable regulatory landscape in the US. Balchunas highlighted that these approval odds, particularly for XRP and SOL, were largely below 5% prior to the election, indicating a significant increase in favorable odds.
Balchunas also emphasized that LTC products fulfill all requirements and sees no reason for the SEC to withdraw the filings. Similarly, DOGE is likely to be considered a commodity, as it shares the same characteristics as LTC and Bitcoin. However, SOL and XRP face challenges due to being classified as securities by the SEC in different lawsuits.
However, the analysts noted that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force could review the SEC’s classification of XRP and SOL as securities by the end of 2025, potentially altering the odds of ETF approval for these cryptocurrencies.
In response to growing demand, Seyffart and Balchunas predict a surge in crypto ETFs in 2025, driven by a more favorable regulatory landscape in the US under the current administration.