tl;dr
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term valuation, forecasting a potential rise to $50 trillion. Despite recent price declines and the U.S. government's announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Hougan attributes the dip to external economic concerns and investor disa...
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term valuation, forecasting a potential rise to $50 trillion. Despite recent price declines and the U.S. government's announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Hougan attributes the dip to external economic concerns and investor disappointment over the government's decision not to immediately purchase more Bitcoin. He believes that most investors are focusing on the wrong metrics and suggests that the market is underestimating the likelihood of the U.S. government expanding its Bitcoin holdings. Hougan projects that if Bitcoin achieves geopolitical relevance, its valuation could reach between $10 trillion and $50 trillion, but if it fails to do so, its price may struggle to exceed $150,000. He dismisses Bitcoin's short-term volatility as insignificant, emphasizing the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as a significant boost to its global relevance.
In 2025, Bitcoin has faced a steady decline in price, even after the U.S. government’s announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), a historic milestone for the digital asset. However, Hougan attributes the current dip to external economic concerns and broader macroeconomic factors, such as trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries. Additionally, he noted that many crypto investors were disappointed by the government’s decision not to immediately purchase more Bitcoin. Instead, the SBR will initially be funded with forfeited assets already in federal custody.
Despite market skepticism and fear, Hougan believes Bitcoin’s future remains bright, arguing that most investors are focusing on the wrong metrics. He suggests that the market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of the U.S. government expanding its Bitcoin holdings in the near future. If Bitcoin achieves this status, its valuation could climb to between $10 trillion and $50 trillion. This projection is based on the assumption that multiple nations will add Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, while sovereign wealth funds will increasingly allocate capital to the digital asset as its role in global finance grows. However, if Bitcoin fails to achieve geopolitical relevance, its price may struggle to exceed $150,000, remaining primarily supported by cypherpunks, libertarians, and speculators.
In conclusion, Hougan dismisses Bitcoin’s short-term volatility as mere noise, arguing that the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has already boosted its global relevance. He believes this move will encourage other countries to accumulate Bitcoin, further solidifying its potential to become a $10-$50 trillion asset—implying a 5x to 25x return from its current price.