tl;dr
Bitcoin's fourth halving cycle has shown a deviation from previous patterns, with a significantly lower growth rate. Observations indicate that the halving event no longer plays a central role in driving Bitcoin's price as it did before. Despite predictions of a potential price range from $140,000 t...
Bitcoin's fourth halving cycle has shown a deviation from previous patterns, with a significantly lower growth rate. Observations indicate that the halving event no longer plays a central role in driving Bitcoin's price as it did before. Despite predictions of a potential price range from $140,000 to $4,500,000, Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,000. Data also suggests a drop in Bitcoin demand, and expert analysis indicates that the bull cycle may have ended. Furthermore, unlike the previous cycle, this time, central banks' monetary policies are not as supportive, making it harder for Bitcoin to sustain strong upward momentum. In this new phase, macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows are expected to have a greater influence on Bitcoin's price trends.
Bitcoin's growth trajectory in this cycle is significantly lower than in previous ones, indicating that the halving event no longer plays a central role in driving Bitcoin's price as it did before. If Bitcoin were to grow similarly to previous cycles, its price could range from $140,000 to $4,500,000, starting from $63,000. However, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $80,000. Additionally, Bitcoin demand has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, according to CryptoQuant data, which compares new supply to inactive supply held for over a year, highlighting the true demand. This suggests that even though the halving event reduces supply, Bitcoin's price may struggle to rally without new capital inflows or strong investor interest.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out another key difference in this Bitcoin cycle. Unlike the previous one, which benefited from expansionary monetary policies by central banks, this time, central banks are either tightening or maintaining neutral policies. This lack of supportive force from current monetary stance makes it harder for Bitcoin to sustain strong upward momentum. However, there are signs of potential recovery in US liquidity, providing some optimism amidst the challenging environment.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's fourth halving cycle has deviated from historical price patterns, leading to a reduced influence of the halving event on Bitcoin's price. Weak demand, unfavorable monetary policies, and expert predictions suggest that Bitcoin has entered a new phase, where macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows will likely dictate Bitcoin's price trends more than the halving event itself.