EddieJayonCrypto
26 Mar 25
Bernstein analysts project that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could accumulate over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 in a bullish market cycle. This would represent approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. The optimistic scenario is based on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $500...
Bernstein analysts project that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could amass over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 in a bullish market cycle. This would represent approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. In an optimistic scenario, based on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033, Strategy may rely on capital markets, potentially increasing its total debt tenfold to $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity. However, in a bear case where Bitcoin peaks in 2025 and then enters a downturn, Strategy's BTC holdings may level off near 514,800 BTC, leading to potential debt management and halting further acquisitions. Despite the risks, Bernstein reaffirms an "outperform" rating on Strategy and sets a $600 price target, reflecting a 75% upside from current levels.
Bernstein's valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple on the software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin reserves. Additionally, Strategy's recent purchase of 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million further cements its commitment to Bitcoin, making it the entity with the largest publicly traded BTC holdings. This analysis indicates continued institutional interest in Strategy's leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, demonstrating how corporate balance sheets are being reshaped around the cryptocurrency.