EddieJayonCrypto
9 Apr 25
The article discusses the surge in U.S. Treasury yields following the Trump administration's tariffs, leading to a significant selloff in Treasuries. The rise in yields is attributed to hedge funds unwinding basis trades and inflation concerns due to higher import costs. The article delves into the ...
The surge in U.S. Treasury yields following the Trump administration's tariffs led to a significant selloff in Treasuries. The rise in yields is attributed to hedge funds unwinding basis trades and inflation concerns due to higher import costs. The surge highlights the market's sensitivity to policy shocks and leverage-driven flows, emphasizing the economic risks of aggressive trade actions. The 10-year yield rose to around 4.47%, while the 30-year yield neared 5%, reflecting a significant shift from more stable levels seen earlier this year. Hedge funds' forced unwinding of basis trades, which exploit price differences between Treasury futures and cash bonds, accelerated the selloff amid rising volatility and margin calls. These developments reignited inflation concerns as higher import costs are expected to push up consumer prices, prompting investors to demand higher yields to offset the anticipated erosion of purchasing power. The surge also complicates the Fed’s policy outlook, as it must address inflation risk while avoiding a deeper economic slowdown. Concerns about foreign holders, particularly China, cutting back on Treasury purchases in response to the tariffs also add to the pressure, weakening demand and pushing yields even higher. This surge underscores the broader economic risks of aggressive trade actions in a fragile macro environment and underscores the market's sensitivity to policy shocks and leverage-driven flows.