tl;dr
JP Morgan analysts state that Bitcoin has greater potential upside than gold, continuing a recent trend as Bitcoin rallies. Catalysts include increased corporate treasury allocations, supportive legislation allowing state investments, and acquisitions by Coinbase and Kraken signaling a maturing cryp...
JP Morgan analysts see greater upside potential for Bitcoin compared to gold, driven by increasing corporate treasury allocations and supportive legislation that enables state investments. Recent acquisitions by major players like Coinbase and Kraken highlight a maturing crypto derivatives market operating under clearer regulatory frameworks, which bolsters institutional investor confidence.
Bitcoin recently surged past $104,500, nearing its all-time high from January, and continues to lead rallies in risk assets. While Bitcoin behaves primarily as a risk-on asset, correlating closely with equities, gold’s trajectory may hinge on developments in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, particularly after the current 90-day pause ends. Although gold prices have eased from their April peak of $3,500 to around $3,230, Bitcoin trades near $103,800, just shy of January’s record close to $109,000.
The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, emphasize that Bitcoin’s momentum has been fueled not only by market interest but also by legislative support and strategic acquisitions: Coinbase’s purchase of Deribit, Kraken’s acquisition of NinjaTrader, and Gemini’s licensing to offer derivatives in Europe. These moves signal a more regulated and sophisticated environment for crypto derivatives, which could attract more traditional institutional investors.
Since last December, Bitcoin ETFs have outpaced gold ETFs in inflows, highlighting a shift in investment preference toward crypto assets amid inflation concerns and macroeconomic uncertainties. JP Morgan expects this zero-sum dynamic between gold and Bitcoin to continue, but with a bias toward crypto-driven catalysts delivering greater upside potential for Bitcoin through the rest of the year.
In summary, while gold remains sensitive to geopolitical and trade factors, Bitcoin’s rally is underscored by expanding institutional adoption and evolving market infrastructure—setting the stage for potentially stronger gains as the digital asset market matures.