tl;dr
Google's quantum research team has revealed that breaking 2048-bit RSA encryption could require 20 times fewer quantum resources than previously thought, potentially factoring such keys in under a week with less than a million noisy qubits. Although current quantum computers like IBM's Condor and Go...
Google researchers have discovered that breaking 2048-bit RSA encryption with quantum computers requires 20 times fewer qubits than previously estimated, potentially enabling key factoring in under a week with less than a million noisy qubits. Although current quantum computers like IBM's Condor (1,121 qubits) and Google's Sycamore (53 qubits) remain far from this capability, advances in algorithms and error correction are accelerating progress.
Bitcoin's security, based on elliptic curve cryptography, could be vulnerable to future quantum attacks using Shor's algorithm. While Bitcoin's 256-bit encryption is currently robust, the reduced quantum resource requirements compress the timeline for potential threats, prompting the crypto community to explore quantum-resistant solutions such as hash-based signatures and proposed blockchain forks to protect assets before quantum hacks emerge.
This quantum threat extends beyond cryptocurrencies. RSA and similar public key systems underpin global secure communications, including banking and digital signatures. Experts warn that adversaries may be collecting encrypted data now to decrypt later when quantum computers become powerful enough. In response, Google and other tech leaders are adopting post-quantum cryptography standards and accelerating preparations for a quantum-safe future.
Despite these concerns, practical quantum attacks remain years away due to challenges in hardware coherence, continuous runtime, and error rates. Achieving stable quantum operations over days with low error is essential for executing large-scale cryptographic breaks. However, developments like tripled logical qubit density, faster modular exponentiation algorithms, and advanced error correction methods such as "magic state cultivation" indicate a rapidly advancing field.
Government agencies like the National Institute of Standards and Technology have issued post-quantum cryptography standards recommending phasing out vulnerable systems after 2030, though Google's findings suggest that timeline may need acceleration. Industry efforts, including IBM's goal for 100,000-qubit machines by 2033 and Quantinuum's target for fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029, underscore urgency.
In summary, while no immediate quantum threat to Bitcoin or global RSA-based security exists, the reduced qubit requirements and faster algorithms signal a faster-than-expected timeline. This necessitates proactive defense strategies in cryptocurrency and secure communication protocols to safeguard digital assets and information in the approaching post-quantum era.