EddieJayonCrypto
29 May 25
Citigroup’s US equity strategist Scott Chronert states that the growing US budget deficit could positively impact the economy. The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act will not reduce the deficit and is expected to add about $600 billion to next year’s deficit. Tariffs may offset roughly $200 ...
Citigroup’s US equity strategist Scott Chronert believes the growing US budget deficit, driven by recent legislation and tariffs, will stimulate the economy but lead to higher interest rates that may limit stock market valuations.Chronert highlights that the newly passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add approximately $600 billion to next year’s deficit, with tariffs potentially offsetting about $200 billion. This keeps the total deficit near $2 trillion, similar to this year’s level.The need to finance this large deficit will require increased Treasury issuance, which could push interest rates higher. While this fiscal stimulus is expected to boost economic conditions and S&P 500 earnings, the resulting higher interest rates may constrain stock prices.In a CNBC interview, Chronert states that despite the negative of the increasing deficit, the stimulative impact on the economy is a positive factor. However, he cautions that expansionary fiscal policies leading to higher rates might suppress equity market valuations by drawing down future cash flow discounting.Overall, Chronert paints a nuanced picture of the US fiscal outlook: a balancing act between economic stimulus and the potential valuation overhang from rising rates, which investors should carefully monitor.