tl;dr
Bitcoin has dropped nearly 10% from its all-time high, briefly falling back into five figures during weekend trading. Analysts note that a typical seasonal decline in Q3, observed over recent years, is occurring, with potential lows expected in August or September. Historical data show significant s...
Bitcoin has recently fallen nearly 10% from its all-time high, briefly dipping back into five figures during weekend trading. Analysts anticipate continued weakness throughout Q3, with potential price lows expected in August or September, consistent with historical summer declines. Previous years have seen Bitcoin experience significant drops ranging from 21% to 38% during June and July, often followed by strong recoveries in late Q4.
Technical indicators reveal Bitcoin closing below critical support levels, notably slipping under the $104,400 mark after holding it for weeks. This breakdown raises concerns amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly actions near the Strait of Hormuz, which contribute to market uncertainty and suppress risk-on assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. Upcoming U.S. inflation reports add to expectations of a volatile market environment in the near term.
Despite the recent price correction and cautious market sentiment driven by Middle East conflicts, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust. However, analysts suggest that the seasonal Q3 weakness, observable over several past market cycles, is unfolding again. Chart patterns and expert commentary point to the potential for Bitcoin to test its bull market support band, possibly falling into the mid-$90,000 range before recovering later in the year.
Historical cases show Bitcoin dropped approximately 35% from June to July 2017 before surging to new highs in December, while similar declines between June and July occurred in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024. This pattern underscores the likelihood of a summer slump possibly driving the price below $80,000 if similar trends manifest this year. Market analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and inflation data as critical factors influencing Bitcoin's trajectory during this volatile period.