tl;dr
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns of potential bearish trends for cryptocurrencies in Q3 based on historical patterns. He noted Bitcoin reached a local high in January 2024, but total market capitalization showed a lower high, indicating market divergence and suggesting a possible pullback. While ...
A widely followed crypto analyst, Benjamin Cowen, has issued a warning about the potential challenges facing digital assets in the coming months. In a recent interview with David Lin, Cowen suggested that the third quarter of this year might be bearish for cryptocurrencies based on historical patterns observed in previous years.
Cowen explained that earlier this year, he anticipated January 20th to mark a local high for Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin surpassed its 2024 high, reaching around $74,000, slightly above the $73.8K peak. However, despite this high for Bitcoin, the total market capitalization did not follow suit, displaying a lower high and signaling divergences within the market. This discrepancy leads Cowen to expect a pullback during Q3, a trend consistent with similar patterns seen in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Despite his bearish outlook, Cowen acknowledges the possibility that the crypto market may defy historical trends and continue an upward trajectory in the latter part of the year. He pointed to macroeconomic factors, particularly the seasonal rise in initial jobless claims around summertime, which has tended to increase uncertainty in the market in recent years.
Cowen emphasized that initial claims are not a major concern unless they reach around 300,000, a threshold not yet hit. This cautious stance highlights the interplay between broader economic indicators and cryptocurrency market movements, underscoring the complex forces at work as traders navigate the volatile landscape.