tl;dr
Quant analyst PlanB challenges skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $300,000 by the end of 2026, projecting an average price of $500,000 based on the stock-to-flow model. This model measures scarcity by comparing existing supply to annual production and has been adapted by PlanB for Bitcoin. Despite ma...
Widely followed quant analyst PlanB is taking a contrarian stance on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, challenging the prevailing skepticism among most traders regarding BTC hitting $300,000 by the end of 2026. Speaking to his 216,000 YouTube subscribers, PlanB highlights that 60% of market participants doubt Bitcoin will reach this milestone within the next one and a half years. However, he firmly believes otherwise, projecting not just $300,000 but potentially reaching an average of $500,000 based on the stock-to-flow model.
The stock-to-flow model, originally designed for traditional scarce commodities, evaluates price movements by measuring scarcity through the ratio of existing supply (stock) against annual production (flow). PlanB was a pioneer in adapting this model to Bitcoin, asserting that scarcity fundamentally drives BTC’s price. While the model provides a broad forecast range between $250,000 and $1 million, PlanB’s confidence in a higher price point challenges the more cautious market sentiment.
Besides the stock-to-flow framework, PlanB tracks Bitcoin’s realized price indicator, which calculates the average price at which current circulating bitcoins last changed hands on the blockchain. This metric helps gauge market sentiment by comparing recent transaction prices against current market value. PlanB notes that Bitcoin’s current price surpasses all major cohorts’ realized prices, which historically signifies a bull market phase.
In fact, PlanB points out a classic bull market pattern: the 2-year price remains above the realized price, the 6-month price stays above the 2-year, and Bitcoin’s spot price still outstrips both. These conditions, he argues, show no warning signs of an impending bear market. His analysis offers an optimistic perspective, encouraging investors to reconsider widespread bearish assumptions and to watch closely for Bitcoin’s potentially robust mid-term upside.