tl;dr
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick raises Bitcoin's year-end price target to $200,000, citing ETF inflows nearing $50B and the U.S. government shutdown as key factors. He predicts a $135,000 climb in weeks, linking Bitcoin's surge to macroeconomic risks and political uncertainty.
**Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick Raises Bitcoin Price Target to $200,000 Amid ETF Inflows and Government Shutdown**
Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has reaffirmed his year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $200,000, citing growing ETF inflows and the potential impact of the U.S. government shutdown as key drivers for the cryptocurrency’s ascent. In a client note released on October 2, Kendrick highlighted that Bitcoin is on the cusp of breaking its all-time high, with a projected climb to $135,000 in the coming weeks—a slight delay from his earlier forecast.
**ETF Inflows and Market Dynamics**
Kendrick emphasized that net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have reached nearly $50 billion, with three months remaining in the year. He predicts an additional $20 billion in inflows by year-end, which he argues would make the $200,000 target achievable. While gold ETFs have recently outpaced Bitcoin ETFs in attracting capital, Kendrick anticipates a reversal in favor of digital assets. “Inflows have been ramping up over the past week and are expected to continue,” he noted, underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving role as a mature financial asset.
**Government Shutdown as a Catalyst**
The U.S. government shutdown, according to Kendrick, could act as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movement. He contrasted the current situation with the 2018–2019 shutdowns, during which Bitcoin showed minimal reaction. This time, however, the cryptocurrency has become closely tied to “U.S. government risks,” reflected in Treasury term premiums. Kendrick argued that deepening political gridlock could benefit Bitcoin as investors seek alternatives amid uncertainty.
Prediction market platform Polymarket suggests a 60% probability that the shutdown will last between 10 and 29 days—a timeframe Kendrick believes would likely bolster Bitcoin prices throughout the period. “The shutdown carries more weight than previous episodes, and its duration could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin,” he said.
**Bitcoin’s Maturing Role in the Financial System**
Kendrick highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic risk indicators, positioning it as a hedge against systemic uncertainties. He pointed to the asset’s growing alignment with broader market dynamics, including its responsiveness to U.S. government stability. “The demand for Bitcoin ETFs, combined with this correlation, reinforces its role as a maturing financial asset,” he wrote.
As the crypto market watches for further developments, Kendrick’s forecast underscores the intersection of institutional interest, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical risks in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. With ETF inflows surging and the government shutdown looming, the path to $200,000 remains a focal point for investors and analysts alike.