tl;dr
Norway investigates a suspected leak of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, linked to massive bets on Polymarket. High-stakes wagers by users like 'dirtycup' sparked outrage, raising questions about prediction markets and data security.
**Norway Launches Investigation into Suspected Nobel Peace Prize Leak Amid Surge in Online Betting**
Norwegian authorities have initiated an investigation into a suspected leak of confidential information following a dramatic surge in online betting on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner just hours before the official announcement. The probe was triggered by unusual activity on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, where bets on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado spiked sharply overnight.
Machado, recognized for her pro-democracy efforts, was named the recipient of the prestigious award, a decision that coincided with a flurry of high-stakes wagers. According to reports by Bloomberg and Norwegian media, multiple large bets were placed on Machado shortly after midnight on October 10, with one user, operating under the handle “dirtycup,” wagering approximately $70,000 and profiting around $30,000. Two other accounts made similar trades, collectively earning $90,000 before the announcement.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, condemned the incident, stating, “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.” The Nobel Committee, which had finalized its decision earlier in the week, described the suspected breach as a “serious violation of its confidentiality standards.”
The episode has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. While advocates argue these platforms aggregate crowd wisdom, critics highlight risks of speculative or illicit behavior when insider information is involved. Polymarket, which faced regulatory challenges in the past, had previously been barred from U.S. users in 2022 over concerns about unregistered event-based contracts. The platform was permitted to re-enter the U.S. under the Trump administration earlier this year.
The Norwegian Nobel Institute announced it would conduct an internal review to determine if confidential data was unlawfully accessed or shared. Meanwhile, Norwegian police have not yet disclosed whether criminal charges are being considered.
The incident underscores the growing tension between the transparency of prediction markets and the need to protect sensitive information. As the investigation unfolds, questions remain about how such leaks occur and the measures required to prevent future breaches. For now, the Nobel Committee’s reputation and the integrity of its process face renewed challenges.