tl;dr
Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could dip below $100,000 amid U.S.-China trade tensions, but warns this may be the final test before a rebound to new highs. Historical 'Uptober' trends and gold price shifts add complexity to the crypto market's path.
**Bitcoin’s Turbulent Path: Predicted Dip Below $100,000 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Shifts**
As geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China intensify over tariffs and trade disputes, Bitcoin faces a potential short-term correction, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. In a recent note, Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin’s price will likely fall below the $100,000 mark before rebounding to new all-time highs, despite recent volatility.
Currently trading at approximately $108,200, Bitcoin has declined 12% over the past 16 days from its all-time high of $126,000. Kendrick attributed the drop to a “fear-driven selloff” fueled by escalating trade tensions. However, he emphasized that the decline may be temporary, stating that a dip below $100,000 “seems inevitable” but could mark the final time the cryptocurrency breaches this psychological threshold.
Historically, October and November have been strong months for Bitcoin, with average gains of 19.8% and 46% since 2013—a period dubbed “Uptober.” Yet, the crypto market has evolved significantly, and Kendrick acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding how far Bitcoin might fall before stabilizing.
The recent selloff coincided with a sharp decline in gold prices, which fell to $4,075 per ounce on Wednesday, down from a record high of $4,381 just days earlier. This shift sparked a “sell gold, buy Bitcoin” trend, according to Kendrick, who noted that such movements could signal the formation of a Bitcoin buying opportunity. “Further evidence of this dynamic would be constructive for a Bitcoin low being formed,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance has been influenced by broader macroeconomic factors. The U.S.-China trade conflict remains a key concern, but other geopolitical developments—such as potential U.S.-India trade agreements to limit Russian oil purchases—could also impact market sentiment. Additionally, crude oil prices rose 2.3% to $58.50 per barrel, reflecting expectations of economic growth.
Analysts have also pointed to the upcoming U.S. inflation report as a potential wildcard, with market participants closely watching for signals of monetary policy shifts. While Bitcoin has outperformed gold in recent weeks amid easing geopolitical tensions and strong corporate earnings, the asset’s path remains volatile.
Despite the near-term challenges, Kendrick reiterated his year-end price target of $200,000, suggesting Bitcoin could nearly double in the coming months. As investors navigate the intersection of trade wars, macroeconomic data, and shifting safe-haven dynamics, the cryptocurrency’s journey toward new highs remains both uncertain and highly anticipated.