tl;dr
Bitcoin navigates critical price levels amid U.S.-China trade negotiations and looming Fed decisions. Short sellers face massive liquidations, while geopolitical tensions and monetary policy signals shape crypto's volatile trajectory.
**Bitcoin Navigates Key Levels Amid U.S.-China Trade Talks and Fed Outlook**
Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around **$114,501 at 23:35 UTC on October 26**, extending its climb above the **$112,000** threshold. The price action saw short sellers bear the brunt of liquidations, with traders closely monitoring U.S.-China trade discussions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming FOMC meeting.
### **Derivatives Market Dynamics**
Over the past 24 hours, CoinGlass reported **$393.74 million in liquidations**, with **$319.18 million** from short positions and **$74.45 million** from longs. The largest single loss was a **$19.04 million BTC-USD order** on Hyperliquid. This imbalance, where short sellers faced heavier exits, often signals a potential upward surge once a critical price level is breached.
### **U.S.-China Trade Talks Intensify**
Chinese and U.S. officials engaged in "candid, in-depth, and constructive" consultations in Kuala Lumpur, focusing on issues like **Section 301 tariffs on China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors**, fentanyl-related cooperation, and agricultural trade. The Chinese Embassy emphasized "basic consensuses" and called for dialogue on equal terms, aiming to stabilize bilateral trade.
A follow-up post highlighted the commitment to "healthy, stable, and sustainable" economic relations, though no immediate policy outcomes were announced. The talks underscore the importance of diplomatic engagement in shaping market sentiment.
### **Trump-Xi Meeting on the Horizon**
CNBC reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on **October 30** during the APEC Summit. Trump expressed optimism about the meeting, stating it would "come out very well." While specifics remain unclear, the potential for reduced tensions and a trade deal could influence global markets, including crypto.
### **Fed’s FOMC Meeting Looms**
The Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting concludes on **October 29**, with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference drawing significant attention. Traders are keen to gauge signals on rate cuts, balance-sheet policy, and the overall trajectory of monetary policy. For crypto, the focus is on whether the Fed will cut rates, how it frames future moves, and the tone of Powell’s remarks.
### **What’s Next for Bitcoin?**
Bitcoin’s short-term outlook hinges on key price levels:
- **Bullish Scenario**: A close above **$113,700–$114,000** could target the **$115,000–$116,000** band.
- **Bearish Scenario**: A drop below **$113,300** might retest **$111,000**, with deeper declines potentially testing the **$108,000** level.
### **Technical Analysis**
As of October 26, BTC was up **2.6%** over 24 hours, trading near **$114,501**. On the 24-hour chart, buyers intervened near **$113,000–$113,300** after breaking above $112,000, while intraday rallies faced resistance near **$114,700**.
On the one-month chart, Bitcoin has recovered from October lows near **$105,000** but remains below early-October highs of **$125,500**. A daily close above **$116,000** could set the stage for another test of the **$120,000–$125,000** range.
### **Conclusion**
Bitcoin’s path forward is intertwined with macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies. As traders brace for the Fed’s decision and ongoing U.S.-China negotiations, the crypto market remains sensitive to both global headlines and technical benchmarks. Investors will closely watch for breakouts or breakdowns above key levels to gauge the next phase of the bull run.