tl;dr
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a crypto market downturn around the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. He attributes this to a mismatch between crypto investors’ high expectations and the limited ability of Trump to implement rapid policy changes. Hayes believes this realizatio...
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a crypto market downturn around the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. He attributes this to a mismatch between crypto investors’ high expectations and the limited ability of Trump to implement rapid policy changes.
Hayes believes this realization could trigger significant sell-offs across the crypto sector and equities tied to Trump’s second term, potentially impacting Bitcoin's rally to a record-breaking $108,000.
Hayes points out the limited timeframe for Trump's potential impact due to upcoming mid-term elections and systemic issues fueling voter discontent.
Despite his prediction, Hayes remains prepared for alternative outcomes and emphasizes the importance of tempered expectations and strategic planning in unpredictable times.
Join Japan's Web3 Evolution Today BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecasted a sharp downturn in the crypto market around the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Hayes attributes this potential decline to a mismatch between crypto investors’ high expectations and the political realities Trump will face after taking office on Jan. 20.
According to him, many in the crypto industry are overly optimistic about the immediate impact of Trump’s administration on the market. However, he argues that Trump’s ability to implement sweeping policy changes will be limited.
Hayes believes this impending realization could trigger significant sell-offs across the crypto sector and equities tied to Trump’s second term. This would mean that Bitcoin’s current rally to a record-breaking $108,000 might not be sustained as these political and economic realities set in.
Hayes points out that US lawmakers will begin campaigning for the 2026 mid-term elections by late 2025. With the entire House of Representatives and many Senate seats up for grabs, Trump’s Republican majority could quickly weaken. Hayes emphasizes that fixing the systemic issues fueling voter discontent would require years, not months, even for the most capable politicians.
Despite his bleak prediction, Hayes remains prepared for alternative outcomes. His firm, Maelstrom, plans to reduce its holdings in anticipation of the downturn but is also ready to adapt if the bull market continues post-inauguration.
Hayes’ insights are a cautionary note for investors navigating the volatile intersection of crypto markets and political developments. While the future remains uncertain, his forecast illustrates the importance of tempered expectations and strategic planning in unpredictable times.
The market’s reaction to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that the Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin hints that Hayes’ suggestion of a delicate market balance holds weight.