tl;dr
The United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves is a highly debated topic. Experts believe the chances are slim, with predictions varying. Polymarket users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days i...
Bitcoin Reserve Incorporation into US Financial Strategy Highly Debated
Prediction platforms show steep drop in odds for Bitcoin reserve introduction under President-elect Trump. CEO of CryptoQuant doubts feasibility of US adopting Bitcoin as reserve asset under current administration. Some experts champion Bitcoin's potential role in reshaping global finance. Market observers believe Bitcoin reserve implementation possible by 2026.
The United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves is a highly debated topic. Experts believe the chances are slim, with predictions varying. Polymarket users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office, a significant drop from post-election optimism. CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, doubts the feasibility of this move under Trump's administration unless the nation's global economic dominance faces a significant threat. However, some experts, such as Mathew Sigel of VanEck, champion Bitcoin's potential role in reshaping global finance and argue that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform, places the odds of the Bitcoin development occurring by January 2026 at 56%.
Bitcoin Reserve Odds Drop as US Policy Analysts Predict Pushback
Prediction platforms and analysts present contrasting views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This marks a steep drop from post-election optimism, where odds reached 60%. This decline reflects broader skepticism about Bitcoin’s place in US financial policy. Proponents view Bitcoin as a natural complement to existing reserves, such as gold and oil. Critics, however, argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make this move unlikely.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under Trump’s administration. He suggests that such a shift would only occur if the nation’s global economic dominance faced a significant threat. Ju drew parallels between today’s Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns for a return to the gold standard. In both cases, these efforts positioned alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainties. However, historical trends suggest resistance to single-asset reliance. Ju predicts Bitcoin may face similar pushback unless the country’s economic standing weakens.
Despite skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. Mathew Sigel of VanEck recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Sigel envisions Bitcoin becoming a leading settlement currency in global trade, particularly for nations seeking to bypass US sanctions. Meanwhile, some market observers believe that the move could become implemented by 2026. Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform open to US participants, places the odds of the Bitcoin development occurring by January 2026 at 56%.